“Don’t Bet Against India – Sensex may hit 2,00,000 in 2030” – Summary of Motilal Oswal Report
Starting with a disclaimer that Prediction is Dangerous – Especially about the Future, In stock market we always look forward for the future with the lessons from the past.
- Market has delivered modest returns of 10% CAGR every year – There is a underperformance
- India is today, where China was in 2006, China has delivered robust 12% CAGR from 2006 to 2020. China has grown from 2.5 $ TN to 14 Tn $ from 2006 to 2020.
- India’s next successive trillion-dollar GDP is fast pacing. India GDP has achieved its 1 $ TN in 2007, 2 $TN in 2014 and about to hit 5 $ TN by 2025.
- Indian Middle-class spending to go 10 times fast pacing in next 10 years – No of Life Insurance Policies, Automobiles, Discretionary spending, Hotel and Entertainment spending and savings will grow by 4 Times from current levels.
- When the spending and savings happens, stock market is a place will rejoice and explode in performance.
- Indicators that will show, India is can be the next China in next 10 Years
- Demography – 40% of Population are youth and below the age of 20 and 85% of people are lesser than age 50
- Middle Class, Upper Middle Class and High Class House Holds are growing exponentially.2
- In 2005 151 Mn ( About 69% ) are below poverty line. In 2030 only 57 Mn ( Which is 15% ) will be below poverty line.3
- Literally 85% of nation will be consuming products and services4
- Digitisation – India is the capital of Software Exports and It is the shine of India
- We have increased our Dollar Reserve from 4 $ Bn in 2000 to 600 $ Bn in 20216
- Declining Interest rates and Inflation
- Declining prices of Crude
- Easing Current Account Deficits
- Covid is a known beast now – Vaccination drive can help and support to fight against it. Business recovery from covid is much faster than anticipated
What can go wrong in next 20 Years
- Global Shocks ( Financial Crisis – Like in 2008 )
- Black Swan Events ( Like Covid )
- Political Risks – Both Global and if we have unstable govt in next 2 terms
- Inflation Risk – If our monetary policy go wrong
Have Conviction & Patience when you invest in stock market.
Motilal Oswal is the Most Respected Equity Research organization in India for last 30 Years. Their Expertise and Stock Market analysis are always laudable.
For complete report check out – Motilal Oswal Channel in YouTube, you will blown away with all insights.
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